Speaker
Description
Using data from the LANL HIV database, we find that the prevalence of HIV-1 subtypes B, C, and BC recombinants have a remarkably sustained ratio over time in Brazil. We explore explanations for this phenomenon by building an ordinary differential equation model where two variants of HIV-1 are introduced into a population (not necessarily at the same time), and where the two variants can recombine. The model includes within-host parameters such as disease progression, viral competition, and recombination, as well as between-host parameters such as transmission rates, and the probability of transmission of a given variant. We showcase scenarios where the model recapitulates the observed sustained ratio between parent variants and recombinants. Further, the model suggests that under the assumptions made, within-host (viral evolution) events have a greater epidemiological impact than between-host transmission events.
