Speaker
Description
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of understanding coronavirus
evolution and transmission dynamics. However, the evolutionary dynamics of
seasonal human coronaviruses (hCoVs) are less well-characterised. Here, we use a
phylodynamic approach to compare the spread of four seasonal hCoVs (OC43,
HKU1, NL63, and 229E) over ten years within Slovenia. The four coronaviruses
circulate seasonally, generally causing mild respiratory illnesses. While the non-
SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses are often grouped together, they exhibit considerable
diversity in receptor usage, genus and emergence time, posing the question of
whether their evolutionary dynamics are similarly varied.
Previous attempts to answer this question have been limited, both geographically
and temporally, by the availability of data. Due to the mild nature of most hCoV
infections, global sequencing and surveillance of these viruses has historically been
limited. Where hCoV sequencing exists, it generally focuses on a specific region
over a limited period of time. We sought to perform a comparative analysis of the
dynamics of these coronaviruses over a longer time period, before, during and after
the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. We adopt a Bayesian phylogeographic and
phylodynamic approach to compare the behaviour of the four seasonal
coronaviruses within and across seasons.
We find that, despite similar symptoms, the four seasonal human coronaviruses
exhibit distinct evolutionary dynamics. These differences are observed at several
different levels, from the extent of recombination to the timing of seasonal peaks and
lineage turnover. Through applying a single-country approach over an extended
period of time, we describe their typical seasonal dynamics, as well as the extent to
which they were affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (and resulting disruption to
within-country and international travel).
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