Speaker
Description
Background
In 2022, an Mpox clade II outbreak affected many countries including Slovenia. To optimize control, it is important to know the extent by which such outbreaks are driven by introductions from abroad or by within-country transmission. We used sequences of all Slovenian cases in a phylodynamic model to address this question, and investigated the potential to assess the number of introductions among new cases in real time during an outbreak.
Methods
We used all 48 Mpox sequences, collected between May 22 and September 7 in Slovenia. We used the phylodynamic model in the R package phybreak to estimate the number of introductions and infer likely transmission events. By repeating this analysis with truncated datasets including cases up to a given week, we assessed if introductions could have been reliably inferred in real time.
Results
We estimated the number of introductions to be 19 (posterior median, 95% CI: 13-29), and found support for two larger transmission clusters. Moreover, throughout the outbreak half of the new cases were attributed to introduction. Analyzing the data ‘in real time’, i.e. with weekly cumulative case data, would have slightly overestimated the number of introductions.
Conclusion
We conclude that the Slovenian Mpox outbreak was driven by the continuous influx of new introductions throughout the outbreak. Under the condition that all confirmed cases are sequenced, the method seems promising for use in real time, to guide control policy.
| Expedited Notification | No thanks, I do not require Expedited Notification |
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